Моделирование рисков реализации проектов развития предприятий мясоперерабатывающей промышленности

Abstract

The article considers a risk assessment matrix, according to the authors, it is the basis for modeling the risks of implementing project management for the development of meat processing enterprises. This matrix is developed in accordance with the structural ideas about the project management of the development of industry organizations as a system, it is proposed to use it in conjunction with the Gartner curve, based on the division of the resulting groups according to the degree of riskiness of their innovative projects. In accordance with the methodology proposed by Gartner, in order to make the right decision about when to implement a particular project, the main issues that companies need to balance when developing a technology maturity cycle curve are formed. The project management is considered from the point of view of the formation of a single information environment. A model for the implementation of several projects of a meat processing industry company was built using the @RISK software product. The advantages and disadvantages of deterministic and stochastic risk analysis based on Monte Carlo modeling are described. Given that each project has a 5% chance of failure in any given month, a summary graph of monthly costs is shown. As a result of running the simulation, the total costs of the project are presented.