СТАТИСТИЧНИЙ АНАЛІЗ СУЧАСНИХ ТЕНДЕНЦІЙ РОЗВИТКУ ТУРИЗМУ ВИШЕГРАДСЬКОЇ ЧЕТВІРКИ

Abstract

The paper presents the research results of tourism state and patterns development in the Visegrad Group. The regional grouping of Central and Eastern Europe, the Visegrad Group, has become a separate subsystem of the European Union, which has received economic, logistical, cultural and political content. These processes are important for Ukraine. The experience of the Visegrad Group, the ability to quickly solve current issues and face the challenges, understanding the real hierarchy of priorities while preserving the national identity of the Visegrad Group (VG) are significant for Ukraine. Tourism is an area that can positively influence both the development of the integrated structure as a whole and the socio-economic development of its member countries. The article carries out a comparative analysis of tourism development trends in the Visegrad Group countries, Europe and the world, as well as develops recommendations for assessing the cooperation prospects between Ukraine and the VG using econometric methods. To achieve the goal of the study, a comparative analysis of global, European and Visegrad trends in tourism was developed, arrivals of international tourists on the amount of income from international tourism by conducting a correlation-regression analysis, substantiated and developed applied aspects for forecasting the potential mutual benefit from cooperation between Ukraine and the VG. According to the World Trade Organization, the forecast of the number of international tourists in the world for 2020-2021 was made. Based on the impact assessment of the number of international tourist arrivals on the amount of income from international tourism, a linear regression model was built, the adequacy and reliability of the regression coefficient was confirmed by Fisher's and Student's estimates. During the analysis (from a priori analysis, proving the quantitative and qualitative homogeneity of the two sets, to the construction, evaluation and analysis of the obtained model) a regression model was built, which can be recommended to be used in the impact analysis of tourist arrivals on international tourism. A comparative analysis of the dynamics of international tourist arrivals and revenues from international tourism in Poland and Ukraine was done. As a result of Poland's experience research, a model of revenues from international tourism is recommended, the factors of which are gross investment (% of GDP) and the number of tourist arrivals.