“Зловещая долина” устойчивости: продолжит ли мировая экономика расти?

Abstract

The world economy is on the threshold of a serious transformation, which is likely to be accompanied by a slowdown in economic growth, but also by a likely increase in the cost of living. The article shows the emergence of a new concept of social development, antagonistic to the idea of economic growth. It examines the shift in emphasis in the political programmes of the parties most popular with the mass electorate, which are also increasingly defending the declining rate of economic growth. The change in values proves to be an additional factor responsible for the slowdown in economic growth in the long run. The role of the new compromise concepts of sustainable development, ESG, turns out to be negative for further progress. They encourage political parties and statesmen to abandon the idea of maintaining economic growth as a factor of social progress. The stagnationist philosophy is confronted with the preservation of economic institutions that cannot easily separate themselves from the objective desire for profit, which requires a search for compromises. The way out of a possible resource and investment stalemate in a slowing economy could be to expand the sale of new investment products designed for emotional investors. In the long run, this threatens to inflate the sustainable finance bubble. The slide of the global economy into the “unfathomable valley” of stagnant growth and financial bubbles becomes a very likely scenario in the medium term.