Анализ тенденций развития электрических сетей мегаполисов Российской Федерации

Abstract

A very rapid development of methods for modeling urban power systems has been seen in recent years at the background of ongoing urbanization processes. Concepts for constructing simulation-oriented software systems for solving applied power supply problems in specific areas are being actively shaped. The majority of studies dealing with the general regularities pertinent to urban power supply are declarative in nature and set out some general principles for sustainable development of cities. The general regularities pertinent to the development of urban power systems have not been adequately studied as yet. A nonlinear nature of correlations between the urban power system, social-economic, and climatic factors, as well as uncertainty of the features characterizing these correlations, and the complexity of formalizing the relevant tasks are the circumstances that determine the necessity of developing modern computational methods. The problem of finding the optimal path for the development of urban power systems is felt especially acute for Russian cities. A significant potential for saving energy lies in adjusting the operation mode of capacities generating heat and electricity to the evolution of the energy consumption structure. The issue of defining the most promising avenues in the development of the power industry still remains open, also due to incompleteness of relevant statistical data and lack of computational models addressing the interrelations between the power industry and economy, and between the power industry and environment. The aim of the project is to determine the key regularities governing the development of urban power systems with due regard to the feedbacks between the power industry and environment and between the power industry and society. The following tasks should be solved to achieve this goal: the evolutions of cities having different sizes should be analyzed with placing focus on the dynamics pertinent to the development of their electric power systems; the trends relating to the socialand-economic development of cities and urban settlements should be investigated; it is necessary to identify a set of key indicators that would characterize the social and economic development of cities and urban settlements, and reflect the regularities pertinent to manner in which the needs of urban settlements in electric energy depend on the social-economic and climatic changes.