Адаптивна система аграрного виробництва в умовах нестійкого зволоження

Abstract

State of the problem. The latest predictive studies indicate that the trend towards climate warming will continue in the next decade. In regions with conditions of insufficient moisture due to a shortage of water resources, it is possible to counteract the threats of a decrease in the productivity of field crops not only by improving the use of the available potential of natural moisture, but also by improving the sectoral structure of agricultural production. Such improvement is carried out on a bioenergy basis and makes it possible to ensure sustainable and balanced production of food, industrial raw materials and bioenergy. The goal is to analyze the modern use of the agricultural resource potential of the Poltava region, to develop promising, highly profitable models of production activity adapted to the conditions of unstable moisture. Methodology and conditions. Statistical data of the State Committee of Statistics of Ukraine for the Poltava region averaged over the last 5 years were used to assess the effectiveness of the modern extended practice of agricultural production in the region. For the innovative bioproductivity potential of typical chernozem, the information base of long-term agrotechnical experiments of the Poltava research station was used. In the future, the obtained results were used in the development of promising options for the development of the SE “DG Im. January 9” Khorolsky district, Poltava region. Computer multivariate simulation modeling functioned with the help of the “Agroecosystem” software complex. The results. The analysis of statistical information showed that the modern widespread practice of crop specialization in the Poltava region is characterized by high instability of the productivity of the main field crops. Under these conditions, the average profitability of a hectare of arable land for 7 years is 270 u.o. Computer simulation modeling of promising options for the production activity of an agricultural enterprise in the Left Bank Forest Steppe showed that improving its branch structure on a bioenergy basis makes it possible to radically increase the profitability of production activity, to significantly strengthen its stability and resistance to external negative factors, in particular to a lack of hydration. This position is achieved by bringing the structure of acreage in line with the needs of animal husbandry, increasing the productivity of dairy herds, organizing the production of meat and dairy products, sugar, oil and bioenergy, and certifying the obtained products as organic. In the future, this will make it possible to increase the net profit to 8 thousand u.o./ha. Mastering the technology of long-term storage of sugar raw materials with the production of pulp throughout the cold period of the year, construction of an elevator and modern storage facilities for rough and juicy fodder, the formation of an insurance fund sufficient in case of adverse vegetation conditions, as well as a high level of financial self-sufficiency will make it possible to significantly strengthen the stability and sustainability of the production system to adverse factors, including agrometeorological ones. Conclusion. Cross-industry bioenergy optimization of agricultural production in relation to the agricultural resource potential of the left-bank part of the foreststeppe zone without irrigation significantly increases the sustainability of production activity. At the same time, a significant amount of chemical and man-made resources is saved and one’s own energy needs are provided, which makes it possible to significantly reduce the cost of production and increase the profitability of agricultural enterprises.