Потребности региональной социально-экономической системы в транспортных услугах

Abstract

The subject of the article is the relationship between the parameters of the regional socio-economic system and the transport complex. Transport is a: 1) independent branch of the economy, 2) element of the regional infrastructure, providing conditions for functioning of the other branches of material production and the social sphere. The purpose of this article is to present methodological approaches to the study of needs of the regional socio-economic system in the transport services and to conduct experimental needs assessment on the example of the Khabarovsk territory. Methodology is presented as a set of sequential stages, including the analysis of features of the regional economy and transport, study of the relationship of their parameters. The structure of the economy and key indicators of the transport complex of the Khabarovsk territory are considered. Experimental assessment of the demand for freight transportation from the socio-economic system of the region using methods of econometric analysis was carried out. Models of simple linear regression vector and auto-regression vector are tested. The data on the volume of cargo transportation and cargo turnover for the period 1995–2019, as well as the index of industrial production and gross regional product were used. It is determined that linear regression does not allow obtaining meaningful and correct estimates. The vector auto-regression model shows a significant relationship between the indicators of the economy and the volume of rail transport, the general indicator of transportation, as well as cargo turnover by road (with a lag of one period), no significant connection with the road transport was found. The results obtained can become the basis for assessing the future needs for transport services, based on the future parameters of the economic development of the region. This will allow for timely and adequate development of transport infrastructure without turning it into a limitation of economic growth. In the future, it is necessary to detail the analysis by studying the relationship of need for transport services with the parameters of the functioning of individual sectors of the socio-economic system of the region.