ЦИФРОВАЯ ПРОГНОЗНО-АНАЛИТИЧЕСКАЯ МОДЕЛЬ ПРИБЫЛЬНОСТИ БИЗНЕСА СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННЫХ ОРГАНИЗАЦИЙ

Abstract

In the modern conditions of the spread of the Internet and information and communication technologies, as a result of the impact of the processes of general globalization, the traditional business models of the functioning of commercial organizations are gradually being replaced by new systems operating on the basis of digital platforms. Taking into account the fact that the digitalization of the functioning of domestic producers of agricultural raw materials and food is currently at the initial stage of development, the authors proposed to consider the digital business model of an agricultural organization from the point of view of managing its main constituent elements (business processes), which made it possible to display the main approaches to its formation. The main goal of any commercial organization is to make a profit, therefore, forecasting the main production and financial results of its activities, being an important component of the business planning process, is necessary to improve the efficiency of decisions made by management. Based on this, the authors proposed a predictive and analytical model for studying the key indicators of the functioning of a number of economic entities in the Saratov region, which can be considered as one of the integral elements of digital business modeling of the activities of agricultural organizations in the region. The predictive and analytical component of the digital business model proposed by the authors is aimed at studying the production and financial results of the functioning of agricultural enterprises in the Saratov region in dynamics over a certain period of time. Within the framework of the presented work, the method of graphical data analysis was applied, which made it possible to establish the state of the studied indicators in the near future. Revealing the coefficients of closeness of the relationship between individual elements of the costs of agricultural production and factors affecting profit using the method of correlation-regression analysis of indicators, increased the level of reliability of the developed model. To determine a number of predicted values of production and financial results of activities of economic entities of the region (factors), taking into account the coefficients of their relationship with individual cost elements, a formula has been proposed that allows combining the methods of graphical and correlation-regression analysis of data.