보호관찰 청소년 통합 재범위험성 평가도구 개발에 관한 연구

Abstract

The current study attempts to investigate the predictive validities of the risk assessment tools that are currently being used in juvenile probation and parole in Korea. Since 2016, MOJ(Ministry of Justice) has used the JDRAI-S and JDRAI-D for a different purpose; JDRAI-S has been in use for the purpose of risk classification of juvenile delinquents while JDRAI-D has been utilized for case planning of juvenile probationers and parolees. With the two risk assessment tools being rolled out, concerns have been expressed over the predictive validity of the tools among the practitioners. More importantly, Probation officers have expressed the need to integrate the two different tools into a single, integrated risk assessment tool. Against this backdrop, the current study examines the predictive validities of JDRAI-S and JDRAI-D, and also investigates the possibility that a new tool could be constructed and demonstrate a good level of predictive validity. The results of the current study show that the two current risk assessment tools fail to demonstrate adequate levels of predictive validity. A series of ROC analyses showed that JDRAI-S has the value of AUC .64 and JDRAI-D has the value of AUC .61. Specially the predictive validity of JDRAI-D has posed a serious concern, because many items included in JDRAI-D have been shown not to be associated with recidivism. The second part of the study shows promising results. The newly constructed risk assessment tool, named as JDRAI-Ⅱ, demonstrates a very good level of predictive validity with the value of AUC .73. In addition, the sub factors of JDRAI-Ⅱ also show a good level of consistency and validity. At the end of the study, the authors provide some useful tips for future research and practices.