Abstract
The projection of the hot water thermal load of the district heating system’s consumers is developed. It is shown that the total heat load of centralized hot water supply systems in Ukraine today is about 3.0 GW. It determines the full potential of maneuvering power of electric heat generators to provide ancillary services to a power system. Moreover, due to the decline of the Ukrainian population and the decrease of demand for thermal energy, it is expected to decline in the future and will reach 1.9 GW in 2050 (down 36.6% compared to 2020). During the non-heating period, under market conditions, it is expected that heat-generating technologies will compete with each other for the ability to supply heat water to the district systems. The solar collectors will be excluded from the market competition as they do not require a fuel, and therefore their use during the non-heating period is the most profitable. Another technology that will be in use is biomass boilers, their minimum reduced weighted average lossless price of thermal energy (Marginal Levelized Price of Energy - MLPOE) is 102 UAH / Gcal. Gas cogeneration technologies also have a great chance to use their thermal capacity (MLPOE - 258 UAH / Gcal), heat pumps (MLPOE - 155 UAH / Gcal), electric boilers (MLPOE - 633 UAH / Gcal) and gas boilers (MLPOE - 964 UAH / Gcal) will also be used. The analysis of different options for providing ancillary services to the power system showed that considering the competition among technologies, the most feasible option is to involve CHP equipped with electric heat generators. This option allows performing both daily regulation of power and load of power system and also regulation during the system’s night minimum load. At the same time, the balancing power for the current situation is about 1.3 GW for daily control and 1.4 GW for regulation during the night minimum load Keywords: coal industry, production technologies, modernization, forecast, development
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