Монетарне золото як складова міжнародних резервів центральних банків

Abstract

Introduction. International reserves of central banks (CBs) are used to support the exchange rate of national currencies and have an impact on the monetary policy. In the unified standards of the IMF, international reserves include only gold, and not all precious metals. The state can call on its reserves in case of emergencies, so they are often compared with the volume of imports. It was natural to expect changes in the structure of international reserves due to the coronavirus pandemic. Problem Statement. Monetary gold does not lose its weight as a stable component of reserves, despite the volatility of world prices and the comparative profitability of other components of these reserves. Countries differ in the dynamics and share of monetary gold in reserves, as well as the possibilities of mining and physical preservation of reserves. A serious problem is the adequate revaluation of precious metals, which affects the high volatility of international reserves of many countries. The purpose of the article is to assess the role of monetary gold as a component of international reserves for the implementation of monetary policy in conditions of systemic stress, such as the coronavirus pandemic. Methods. Comparative and correlational analysis was used to characterize changes in reserves; abstract-logical analysis - to generalize the reasons for differences in the levels of the gold reserve; statistical and economic analysis - to study the influence of these variability factors on gold. Results. The analysis made it possible to distinguish monetary gold from the general circle of precious metals, to structure non-monetary gold. Several types of risks related to the ownership of gold have been singled out, which the Central Bank should take into account when managing reserves: the threat of manipulation by large players on commodity and stock exchanges; high historical and expected price volatility; the probability of loss of gold during storage and transportation due to damage, robbery, counterfeiting, etc. Conclusions. Gold remains a valuable component of the country's currency reserves. At the same time, it should not be considered as an anti-inflation product for the short term, although it retains the status of a reliable asset. There is no significant correlation between the size of the gold reserve and its share in the reserves of the Central Bank. The hypothesis that a higher level of development of the country's economy corresponds to a smaller share of gold was not confirmed. In Ukraine, the National Bank should define, as a component of monetary policy, a separate strategy for monetary gold, taking into account the state of war and the prospects of post-war economic reconstruction. In the management of monetary gold reserves, central banks should take into account the risks inherent in it. At the same time, it can be successfully used to neutralize certain risks of general reserves and liquidity risk, soften fluctuations in the national currency rate and normalize the balance of payments. It is advisable to improve the toolkit of gold price forecasting and stress testing using hypothetical and historical scenarios.