시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 재난관리자원의 동원 및 응원 시뮬레이션

Abstract

In this study, a disaster management resource simulation model between local governments was suggested using the system dynamics methodology. At this time, the subject of analysis was selected as the stockpile of deicing agents for each district in Seoul. Based on statistical data, a scenario was set in which the expected amount of heavy snowfall reached level 3, and the response to heavy snowfall reached level 4 for 5 days in the 11 districts of Seoul. The simulation shows that in areas with heavy snow, the deicing agent stock falls below the minimum by the 4.5th day, and in areas without heavy snow, it happens by the 14.5th day. Additionally, it was estimated that the Seoul Disaster Resource Integrated Management Center required about 2,155 tons of deicing agents. This study is meaningful because it can be used to set the RTO(Recovery Time Objective) for the mobilization and support of deicing agents. Furthermore, it can be used to interconnect disaster management resources by suggesting an appropriate stockpile of deicing agents for the Seoul Disaster Resource Integrated Management Center.