Оценка влияния параметров неопределенности на прогнозирование показателей разработки

Abstract

At the stage of developing a geological and hydrodynamic reservoir model, uncertainties in input data may lead to errors in simulation results and subsequent inaccurate economic evaluations of oil or gas field potentials. In order to improve predictive reliability, a study was completed to assess how input data of a hydrodynamic model influence forecasts of main parameters of a production using the example of the Tournaisian site of the Soldatovskoye field. The study presents an approximate algorithm reducing uncertainties and improving the forecast reliability of the production parameters obtained using a geological and hydrodynamic reservoir model. The algorithm includes a substantiated selection of the initial sensitivity parameters, an evaluation of the impact of the initial parameters on the hydrodynamic reservoir model using the sensitivity analysis, as well as a selection of an optimal range of variations of the uncertainty parameters as a result of the multivariant hydrodynamic simulation adaptation, calculation and analysis of the multivariant hydrodynamic reservoir model forecast. The study aims to clarify the design process parameters of the development, assess the risks of non-confirmation of the hydrodynamic simulation forecasting, and make recommendations and proposals to study those uncertainty parameters, which influence most on certain predicted production parameters of an asset. As a result, a block diagram of the approach is presented in order to generalize and replicate it on potential and important oil and gas fields. The described approach of the model adaptation and calculations of the predicted options in conditions of uncertainty of the initial model parameters make it possible to obtain a more accurate and less arbitrary hydrodynamic reservoir model, which reduces probability of an incorrect evaluation of potentials of a young field or a field at an early production stage.