Отраслевые структурные сдвиги на примере экономики Удмуртской Республики

Abstract

A slowdown in economic growth implies the need to identify driver industries that will ensure the development on a new basis. The study aims to analyse industrial structural changes in the economy of the Udmurt Republic in the context of consolidated types of economic activity. It is suggested that shifts in the industrial structure of gross regional product (GRP) of the Udmurt Republic did not accelerate its economic growth. To achieve the set goal, theoretical aspects of structural changes were examined, a retrospective analysis of statistical data for 2004–2021 was performed. A modified methodology of dynamic macrostructural analysis was applied to study structural changes along with economic growth rate. Historical background of the industrial structure formation was analysed. When assessing the quality of structural changes, the index of physical volume of GRP per capita was used instead of GRP. Additionally, the study introduced the concept of “structural determinant of economic growth”. The conduced analysis revealed two structural lags and four small periods, characterised by a certain ratio of manufacturing and mining industries, in which five significant structural shifts occurred. The region’s industrial economic structure is the result of natural, geographical and political factors. Structural changes in the examined period, being a consequence of the volatility of world oil prices, did not ensure long-term economic growth or a fundamental transformation of the technological structure of the regional industry. The obtained results can be used to develop regional structural policies from the perspective of driver industries and ensure sustainable economic growth. Future studies should substantiate the “optimality” of regional economic structure, considering the interdependence of industries and integration into the national production system.