ПРОГНОЗНО-АНАЛИТИЧЕСКАЯ ЧАСТЬ ЦИФРОВОЙ БИЗНЕС-МОДЕЛИ СЕЛЬХОЗОРГАНИЗАЦИИ РЕГИОНА

Abstract

Profit is the key objective of the business enterprise, and its forecast plays a major role both in the initial business planning stage and in its ongoing work, since it allows the manager to make timely management decisions and adjust the vector of his development. The authors proposed an analytical model for forecasting the production and financial results of the functioning of economic entities of the Saratov region as one of the integral elements of digital business modeling of the activities of the agricultural organization of the region. The article considers the concepts of a modern business model of a commercial enterprise, presents a digital business model of an agricultural organization from the point of view of managing its main constituent elements (processes), shows key approaches to its construction, reveals the structure of its production unit. The proposed predictive and analytical component of the digital business model of the agricultural organization allows to investigate the production and financial results of activities of economic entities of the Saratov region in dynamics over 10 years by applying one of the methods of graphical analysis of data (superimposition of the moving average polynomial line of the second degree), as well as to find the corresponding equation for detecting the state of indicators in the near term. In order to improve the reliability of the predictive and analytical part of the digital business model, a correlation-regression analysis method was used, as a result of which coefficients were identified, reflecting the degree of interaction between individual elements of costs for agricultural production, on the one hand, and factors affecting profits, on the other. The main element of the novelty of this work is the combination of methods of graphical and correlation-regression analysis of data, as a result of which the authors proposed a formula for determining a number of forecast values of factors affecting the profits of agricultural producers, taking into account the coefficients of their relationship with individual cost elements.