Задачи развития российской Арктики в новой международной обстановке.

Abstract

This article aims to address current Arctic developments against the background of long-term global shifts related to the emerging new system of technologies (therein the fourth energy transition) and respective moves in the international politics and economy. We demonstrate that despite its remote location and characteristic economic structure, the Arctic has for centuries been present in the world market with its unique raw materials, supplied by outside monopolist intermediaries. The situation started to change rapidly in the 1990s, under the globalization. A network of international organizations was established, transboundary contacts among northern regions and Indigenous Peoples increased dramatically. Inherent contradictions were growing in parallel and turned by early 2020s into ideologically laden discussions on the human role in the Arctic, on its target image (cooperation vs confrontation) and on the role of non-regional actors in the Arctic governance. A number of key options were actually chosen under the dramatically increased international tension in 2022.They will shape the future global Arctic, with Russia on the one ‘pole’ continuing massive development efforts and using actively its unique position as the only Asian Arctic nation to involve new actors (first of all, China) vs seven NATO member states involving major European countries plus the EU and pursuing a green agenda. The Russian Arctic Zone faces a somewhat sophisticated transformation under stringent restrictions (a sharp decrease in fuel exports to Europe, technological sanctions, environmentally motivated outside pressure, militarization, etc.). This situation makes it especially timely to adjust the development concept in line with the recent Arctic policy papers and legislation, namely to transit from resource extraction which relies on imported equipment and raw materials export towards supporting any businesses and using megaprojects to spur local economies and innovation.