Моделювання рівня соціально-економічного розвитку регіонів на основі proxy-змінних

Abstract

The article proposes models for assessing the level of socioeconomic development and economic security of regions, on the basis of a synthesis of the proxy variable technique and cluster analysis, which allow to assess changes in interregional differentiation, spatial economic transformations, identify «pivotal» regions, assess the level of economic security of regions under conditions of limited data. The system of proxy-variables of socioeconomic development of regions is substantiated; classifications of regions by the level of socioeconomic development on the basis of methods of hierarchical, agglomerative and iterative cluster analysis have been developed; a dynamic analysis of the structure of clusters is carried out; changes in the characteristics of the distribution of proxy-variables are analyzed; an assessment of interregional differentiation and asymmetry of development is carried out. The results of the carried out cluster analysis based on proxy variables helped to conclude that recent years have led to significant transformations of the economic space in the regional aspect. In the cluster of «pivotal» regions, there is a strengthening of the positions of Dnipropetrovsk and Lviv regions, convergence with regions with an average level of development – Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa regions. The most critical situation is typical for Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kherson regions. Donetsk region has moved from a cluster of regions with an average level of development to a cluster of regions with crisis development. The relocation of enterprises and smoothing out the asymmetry in the variable of «Growth of legal entities» currently affects the indicators of budget security of the regions to a lesser extent. Kharkiv region, despite the deterioration of the socioeconomic situation, maintains its position in the cluster of «pivotal» regions. The obtained results can be used in the system of anticipative management of regional development to adapt regional strategies to new realities.