Изменения биологической продуктивности наземных экосистем российской Арктики в ХХI в.

Abstract

The authors compare current productivity estimates with the data obtained in the 1960s and 1970s for the ecosystems of the Russian Arctic in the course of the International Biological Program. This makes it possible to identify objectively climate-related trends in their productivity in the 21st century. The authors used archives and current satellite data for the Russian Arctic, including AVHRR, LANDSAT, MODIS TERRA, and others, represented by periods of 30 years or more. They have revealed that by the 21st century, the phytomass stocks (reserves) of zonal ecosystems increased on average by 15—30%, and primary production by 10—15%. Compared with field measurements of the 1960—1970s at specific points, this growth reached 50% or more. In terms of productivity growth, the ecosystems of the Arctic European sector are leading, although in the 21st century the warming trend is not the highest here (0.4—0.5 °С/10 years). The production forecast of the Arctic land ecosystems for 2025 (deviation of the linear trend in comparison with 2000—2019) showed its continued growth in the Kola Peninsula, in the Bolshezemelmkaya tundra, the Yamal and Gydan Peninsulas, and a decrease in the Polar Urals, northern Siberia and Kolyma lowland. The growth of specific indicators of productivity in the 21st century reached a plateau and, similar to the warming case of the 1920—1940s, is unable to lead to zonal restructuring.