Сценарії функціонування банківської системи України в умовах пандемії COVID-19

Abstract

Abstract. Introduction. The COVID-19 pandemic, as evidenced by the practical experience of recent years, not only affects the health of people around the world, but also has a strong impact on the economic situation in the economy as a whole. In such circumstances, the creating of forecasts for the functioning of the banking system is the key to understanding the economic situation in the coming years, and will allow to form effective measures to minimize losses for ordinary citizens, individual enterprises and entire industries. Purpose. The main purpose of the study is to creation of scenarios for the functioning of the banking system of Ukraine in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Results. According to the purpose of the author's research, we have systematized the main forecasting tools to create the most accurate and relevant forecast, it turned out to be not so simple. But scenario planning in an author's study can provide an advantage by allowing you to respond quickly - because the situation has been thought out and the actions documented, no one needs to rush into the midst of the crisis. As part of the author's study, based on the methodology of scenario forecasting, we have selected a number of drivers or indicators that in our opinion would determine the conditions of the banking system of Ukraine in a pandemic COVID-19. Based on the selected indicators, or drivers, we have proposed some scenarios, which in our opinion reflect the full range of events that can be predicted by the selected indicators. Conclusions. The article substantiated the effectiveness of the methodology for scenario forecasting of the banking sector of Ukraine in the COVID-19 pandemic, which, in contrast to existing forecasts based on extrapolation, is based on the construction of forecasts from the future to the present. The set of indicators or drivers that would determine the conditions of functioning of the banking system of Ukraine in the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic is substantiated: dynamics of the discount rate; actual lending parameters; dynamics of cash, deposits and loans; dynamics of the number of issued loans, monetary gold and SDRs; dynamics of the number of banks licensed by the Central Bank of Ukraine. Three scenarios are proposed, regarding the conditions of the banking system functioning, are the key to understanding the economic situation in the coming years, and will allow to form effective measures to minimize losses for ordinary citizens, individual enterprises and entire industries.