Характеристики демографічної резильєнтності населення України у період пандемії Covid-19

Abstract

The full-scale military invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation came at a time when our country had been weakened by a series of shocks in a relatively short historical period. Shocks such as a prolonged pandemic and war can disrupt and, in some cases, halt demographic development. In this context, the study of demographic resilience on the eve of a full-scale war, which became a new powerful shock for Ukraine, is relevant and necessary. The complexity of this issue does not allow us to provide all the answers in one article. The purpose of our paper is to determine the main parameters of the demographic resilience of the population of Ukraine in the Covid-19 period and to compare them with the characteristics of resilience in other periods of the greatest shocks experienced by our country, as well as with the indicators of other countries. In our study the main indicators of transient dynamics (convergence time, reactivity, population inertia, damping ratio) were calculated for the first time for the population of Ukraine. The influence of the contribution of different age groups of women to total fertility on the age structure of the population (with the same total fertility rate) was also determined for the first time. The calculations were based on the stable population model, the Leslie matrix, fertility tables, and life tables. The resilience indicators were calculated using the popdemo package. Methods of comparison, generalisation, and analogy were also used. Among the characteristics of demographic resilience, the half-life indicator stands out for its simplicity of calculation and interpretation. In Ukraine, the halving time for the population is decreasing, but it is still higher for the real population than for its stable equivalent. The age structure of the real population, formed under more favourable conditions, mitigates the negative consequences of shock periods, but the long-term preservation of the current regime of mortality and fertility will inevitably worsen the characteristics of the population. In Ukraine, advanced motherhood is an element of the adaptive cycle and requires a rethinking of its meaning and role, as it can be one of the internal mechanisms aimed at the resilience of the system in shock periods. In the conditions of the lowest-low fertility and mortality regime in Ukraine in 2021, advanced maternal age contributed to some increase in the number of births and a certain rejuvenation of the age structure of the population.