СТРУКТУРА ТОВАРНОГО ЕКСПОРТУ УКРАЇНИ: ОЦІНКА ЕЛАСТИЧНОСТІ ДИНАМІКИ ТОВАРНИХ ГРУП

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of the structure of Ukrainian exports based on the use of the ABC method. Its purpose is to assess the prospects of various product groups in the future model of Ukraine’s foreign trade based on the use of microeconomic analysis methods. The article substantiates methodical approaches to the division of individual goods of positions A, B and C depending on their specific weight in the total income from exports. Based on the data for 2021 (the last pre-war year of export growth), 5 commodity items that provide more than 75% of export income (group A) and 10 commodity items that make up more than 90% of exports (A+B) were selected. It is these positions that should be the focus of the state’s attention on the formation of export policy. The performed grouping was used to analyze the trends of changes in the export structure over the last 10 years. It was found that in group A, two product positions (chapters XV and XVI according to the Ukrainian classification of goods of foreign economic activity - UCG FEA) have a steady tendency to weaken positions, as well as two other positions (chapters II and III), on the contrary, constantly increase their specific weight in total exports. This phenomenon is qualified as deindustrialization of Ukrainian exports. In order to identify the growth potential of Ukrainian exports and justify the basic principles of the formation of the post-war foreign economic strategy, the ABC analysis was supplemented by the calculation of the elasticity coefficient for individual commodity items, which is defined as the ratio of the percentage change in income from the corresponding commodity item to the percentage change in the total value of commodity exports for the corresponding year. The analysis of the obtained results showed that goods from section XV (Precious metals and products thereof) are characterized by high elasticity both in periods of growth of total exports and its reduction. This gave reason to assume that the main factors of the dynamics of this part of exports lie outside the country’s borders, and therefore it should not form the basis of foreign trade strategy in post-war Ukraine. On the contrary, goods from sections I, II, III and IV (goods related to agro-industrial complexes) have low elasticity, their export is characterized by stability. However, due to these reasons, they also do not have significant growth potential, and therefore should be considered not as a driver, but as a stabilizer of foreign trade. The goods of group XVI (Machines, equipment and mechanisms; electrical equipment) have the greatest potential. Therefore, in the post-war strategy of foreign economic activity, a special place should be given to the stimulation of both the production and export of these goods, as well as the creation of special conditions for investors (domestic and foreign) who are ready to invest in export-oriented machine-building enterprises.