ХАРАКТЕРИСТИКА НЕПРЕРЫВНОСТИ ЭПИДЕМИЧЕСКОГО ПРОЦЕССА ИНФЕКЦИОННОГО МОНОНУКЛЕОЗА В Г. МИНСКЕ

Abstract

We have studied one of the characteristics of the epidemic process of infectious mononucleosis – the continuity of the epidemic process. When analyzing the data we found that in Minsk in the year 2012–2019 there were between 0 and 10 cases per day with intervals of varying duration. During the analysis period (according to the average multi­year data), days with 2 cases per day were more common (25,43 % ± 0,03 %), less often – days with 1 case (23,03 % ± 0,03 %) and with 3 cases (18,45 % ± 0,03 %) per day. Short intervals (from 0 to 3 days) were more common between days with a small number of cases. The proportion of 0 and 1 day intervals for 1 and 2 cases per day was 22,50 %, 21,16 % and 26,31 %, 19,06 % respectively. For days with a small number of cases their share decreased with an increase in the length of the intervals (for the interval of 16 days or more it was 0,94–4,08 % for days with 1–3 cases per day). With the increase in the number of cases per day (from 4 or more) there was an increase in the number of long intervals (for days with 4 and 5 cases per day, the frequency of 8–10 days, 11–15 days and 16 days or more was 10,95–13,91 % and 10,86–33,14 % respectively). At the same time, the low rate of hospitalization in the first days of the disease (15,58 % on the first or second day) contributed to the further spread of the infection and the formation of days with several (not one) cases of the disease. Thus, the current frequency of different intervals between days with different numbers of cases per day ensures the continuous spread of infectious mononucleosis in the territory of the city of Minsk.