Логико-стохастическая модель аварийности и травматизма на угольном разрезе

Abstract

To analyze the functional characteristics of the «man — machine — environment» system and various factors influencing the occurrence of technogenic incidents at a open pit mining, a logical-stochastic model is developed. Within the framework of this model, it is proposed to consider both deterministic factors, such as working conditions or the state of equipment, and probabilistic (stochastic) factors, for example, random events or the human factor. The model allows for evaluating the probability of specific types of accidents or injuries based on these factors. The purpose of the work is to develop a logical-stochastic model of accident rate and injuries for the open pit mining system under consideration. The work implements an algorithm for a model of the stripping process for machine modeling of the process of the emergence of hazards and their development into the causal chain of a catastrophic accident and injury to personnel. The algorithm is based on the anthropogenic factors of a person psychophysiological properties and other factors determined by the reliability of the machine used by him, the comfort of the working environment and the level of organization of the technology of work being carried out. The model and the algorithm for occurrence of technogenic accidents at a open pit mining during the implementation of hazards in the system under consideration were developed. The algorithm is applicable to conduct a series of machine experiments and identify factors influencing the implementation of technogenic incidents. The combined model of the realization of hazard and the occurrence of a technogenic incident in the open pit mining system under consideration is presented, taking into account many fuzzy logic factors. The model improves modeling accuracy, uncertainty handling ability, and applicability to real-world problems, providing a flexible tool for analyzing complex phenomena when dealing with fuzzy information.