МЕТОДИ ОЦІНЮВАННЯ ТА НАПРЯМИ ЗНИЖЕННЯ СХИЛЬНОСТІ ПІДПРИЄМСТВ ДО БАНКРУТСТВА

Abstract

Among the negative scenarios of the functioning of enterprises, one of the most widespread is the one in which firms become unable to fulfill their debt obligations. The main reasons for the occurrence of such a situation include the excessively high volume of loan funds that the company has raised and the poor situation in the markets for the sale of its products. Eliminating the threat of bankruptcy of the firm involves reducing the negative impact of factors that lead to loss of solvency. At the same time, it is important to have information about how close a certain company is to its bankruptcy state. One of the main ways of obtaining such information is to assess the propensity of enterprises to bankruptcy. Such assessment, in turn, acts as a basis for developing measures to prevent bankruptcy of business entities. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to improve assessment methods and determine the directions for reducing the propensity of enterprises to bankruptcy. Currently existing models for assessing companies' propensity to bankruptcy are considered. The shortcomings of these models are described. An approach to assessing the propensity of companies to bankruptcy is proposed, which is based on measuring the probability of its occurrence. Two ways of implementing this approach are presented, namely: by taking into account the probabilities of certain scenarios of the enterprise receiving a certain amount of financial results of its activities and on the basis of calculating the maximum amount of debt obligations that the enterprise under study can keep on the balance sheet without the threat of being bankrupt The theoretical principles of developing a strategy to prevent bankruptcy of the enterprise are proposed. It is shown that this strategy should provide for constant monitoring of the amount and structure of the loan capital of the business entity and regulation of the process of changing the amount of such capital. At the same time, the specified capital at any moment of time must be maintained at a level that will not exceed the maximum amount of the loan that the enterprise can hold in order to guarantee the fulfillment of its credit obligations. A model of the formation of the potential for reducing the tendency of the enterprise to bankruptcy has been developed.