Неоднородность региональной заболеваемости в России – принципы оценки и прогноза

Abstract

The aim of the study is to develop the assessment technology and forecasting heterogeneity of regional incidence for differentiated healthcare management. Material and methods. The incidence of skin and subcutaneous tissue diseases in children aged 0–14 years in 2009–2017 in Russia was used as a material. The sources of information were the data of state statistics. Generally accepted statistical methods were used for the analysis. Results. The expressed heterogeneity of regions of the Russian Federation on children’s dermatological morbidity with a coefficient of variation of 28% is revealed. The marked size of heterogeneity steadily persisted in the 8-year follow-up. The stable predisposition of subjects to a certain rank place is proved. The territories were ranked according to the total 9-year rank. The classification of territories into types of low, medium and high risk of morbidity is carried out. Long-term stability of regional trajectories allows extrapolating them for prediction. Conclusion. The complex of statistical calculations forming the standard “forecast of regional heterogeneity technology assessment” is carried out. Used methods is universal and it could be used in assessment of any sign heterogeneity: morbidity, mortality, fertility, crime, unemployment, etc.