Районирование территории Алтайского края по степени проявления климатических рисков

Abstract

Climate change is recognized as one of the global challenges to sustainable development of society. The efforts of the international scientific community, political structures, and society are aimed at solving the problems of adapting to these changes. The Russian Federation has developed strategic documents that define the main directions of action to prevent the negative consequences of climate change in various sectors of the economy and adaptation measures to them. Such documents at the regional level include "Climate Safety Passports", which are the information and analytical basis for determining specific measures. This article presents selected results of studies carried out in the Altai Region Territory in 2023. The object of study is the Altai Region Territory, located at the junction of the West Siberian Plain and the mountains of Southern Siberia. The purpose of the study is to develop a zoning scheme for the Altai Region Territory according to the degree of manifestation of climate risks based on an assessment of long-term climate changes in the region. Retrospective analysis methods of changes in the thermal regime and annual precipitation for the period 1961–2020 and forecasting these changes over a 30-year interval (until 2050) have been used to achieve this goal. Regionalization is based on the methodology of physical-geographical zoning. Based on the results of the study, six natural and climatic regions with different levels of regional consequences were identified on the territory of the Altai Region Territory. A very tense situation has developed in the South Aleisky steppe and Upper Ob forest-steppe regions having high concentration of population and objects of economic activity in conditions of high thermodynamic and hydrological risks. An increased degree of danger of thermodynamic risks is typical for the Kulunda steppe region. The remaining areas are characterized by a moderately dangerous level of climate risks, mainly due to the presence of a "mountain component" on their territory. For each source of risk, the sectors of the economy were determined witch are most exposed to these risks. The main directions of adaptation to these risks are found.