Abstract
Purpose — a predictive algorithm for determine the risk of moderate or severe children's bronchial asthma to create. Patients and methods. 261 child aged 3–18 years with bronchial asthma were observed: mild — 72, moderate — 128, severe — 61 patients. The life and disease history, results of clinical, somato- and spirometric examination were analysed. Tabular method of statistical forecasting was used. Results. Parameters and prognostic coefficients of moderate and severe asthma risk factors were set. They are collected in the algorithm table (Quetelet index, Pushkarev, Kerdo, functional disorders, etc.). Their prognostic coefficients have summed and compared with a threshold of inequality Wald: sum >+10 — risk is real; <-12 — there's no risk; in the range between +10 and -12 — risk is not defined, it is necessary re-examination. Conclusions. Prognostic algorithm is proposes to determine the children's moderate and severe asthma risk and relevant kinds of basic asthma treatment choose quickly, objectively and without additional financial cost, which can be recommended for use in clinical and outpatient pediatric practice. Key words: bronchial asthma, children, severity, prognostic algorithm.
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