Моделювання сталого економічного розвитку в розрізі ресурсно-екологічної складової

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to reflect the relationship between economic development and environmental pollution. To achieve this goal, a simulation model of ecological and economic processes has been built. The article discusses general economic reforms that lead to unforeseen damage to the environment. Therefore, the existence of outdated policies, market imperfections, and organizational structures elsewhere in the economy can interact in unpredictable ways with broader economic reforms and create incentives for overuse of natural resources and environmental degradation. That is why the correction of such a situation usually does not require the abandonment of the original economic policy. When conducting simulation experiments, the whole range of possible pictures of the model’s behavior is obtained by varying the coefficient of choice of the strategy, which is a managerial one. The built model reflects the ecological and economic processes associated with air pollution and purification in a certain area based on the specified initial conditions and time series that describe the dynamics of exogenous variables. The model proposed in the study allows predicting the dynamics of endogenous variables (qualitatively and quantitatively), and this behavior is possible with the unchanged structure of the system, and quantitative estimates are reliable until 2040 (further, the dynamics of the main variables is provided to demonstrate the possible S-shaped behavior of the system). The model presented in the paper reflects the relationship between different subsystems (sectors of the economy) with the help of feedback loops and allows to consider the influence of selected subsystems (one on the other), which cannot be done with the help of classical methods used in economics. The built model makes it clear that in order to maintain the ecological balance in the world, the situation will require a serious increase in investments in the development of environmental technologies and reduction of environmental damage from existing production technologies.