Проблемы измерения масштабов теневой экономики и пути их решения

Abstract

The shadow sector can be defined as a set of incomes that are not included in official statistics and not reflected in the GDP. The article aims to study the methodological aspects of measuring the scale of the shadow economy, identify problems in this complex and multifaceted process, and suggest ways to solve them. Special (intuitive analytics, descriptive explanatory method of theorizing) and general (analysis, classification, modeling, analogy, concretization, citation) research methods were used to reach the aim. The relevance of the study consists in revealing the negative impact of the shadow economy in various states, which depends on its scale. To date, there are many methods for measuring the scale of the shadow economy; each of them has its own disadvantages and advantages. This article presents an extensive classification of these methods. Each method is analyzed; the shortcomings and problems of applying the methods are identified; and a comprehensive approach to their use is proposed. The article also discusses the Multiple Indicators, Multiple Causes (MIMIC) method of measuring the shadow digital activity. As a result of the study, it is inferred that the existing significant number of studies on the topic and the variety of methods they use indicate the absence of a single unified methodology for identifying both quantitative and qualitative assessments of the scale of the shadow economy. The use of different methods in assessing the shadow economy in Russia also gives different results. Direct methods, as a rule, give an underestimate, and indirect methods, methods of hidden variables, soft modeling, structural methods reflect an overestimate. In this regard, in order to obtain a more objective assessment of shadow economic activity, it is advisable to use various methods in the construction of econometric models that include various factors, then compare the results obtained, and analyze secondary information sources. It is also revealed that not all methods of measuring shadow economic activity are applicable in Russia and in the regions. To date, there is no assessment of the measurement of shadow economic activity by region. In view of the fact that there has been a sharp leap in the development of digitalization in the economy, a shadow digital economy has formed in parallel to it. To some extent, the problem of measuring digital shadow activity can be solved using the MIMIC method by developing new indicators that characterize the causes of the emergence of shadow digital activity.