온도 상승에 따른 우리나라 습지식물의 기후변화 부적응 리스크 평가

Abstract

Temperature increase is a major concern with regard to climate change and species survival. This study sought to assess the adaptability of wetland flora in South Korea to future temperature increases in their habitats. This risk assessment includes analysis of four vulnerability types classified and graded based on relational patterns between species’ populations and current habitat temperature. Then, the risks of future temperature changes for individual species were assessed by analyzing the vulnerability and temperature increasing speed in South Korea. The final risks were categorized into four grades: high, medium, low, and opportunity. In this study, a total of 489 wetland plants in South Korea were selected and their habitat temperature ranges were examined using current and projected future temperature data. Analysis of current habitat temperature distribution and projected future changes was performed using fine‐scale climate change data produced by the Korean Meteorological Administration. Future temperature data were projected based on two future climate change scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The results showed no risk to wetland plants under the RCP 4.5 climate change scenario, but under RCP 8.5, a considerable number of species were predicted to be at medium risk. Species under medium risk were mainly those inhabiting a very narrow range. It is reasonable to infer that even wetland flora thought to be less sensitive to temperature changes are not completely safe to the level of temperature increase seen under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The methodology for risk assessment introduced in this study is expected to be useful for designing adaptation strategies for species conservation in the face of climate change.