시계열분석을 통한 실적공사비의 노무비 분석 및 예측에 관한 연구

Abstract

Since 2004, the government decided to gradually introduce Actual Cost Data into cost estimate for improving problems of below-cost tendering and to reflect fair market price through competition and carry contract efficiently. However, there are many concerns that Actual Cost Data has not reflected real market price, even that has contributed to reduce the government`s budget. General construction firm`s burden for labor cost is imputed to specialty contractors and eventually it becomes construction worker`s burden. Therefore, realization of Actual Cost Data is very important factor to settle this system. To understand realization level and make short term forecast, this paper drew construction group of which labor cost constitutes more than 95% of direct cost, and compares their Actual Cost Data with relevant skilled workers`s unit wage and predicts using time series analysis. The bid price which is not be reflected market price accelerates work environment changes and leads to directly affect such as late disbursement of wages, bankruptcy to workers. Therefore this paper is expected to be used to the preliminary data for solving the problem and establishing improvement of Actual Cost Data.