Моделирование влияния факторов развития промышленности на реиндустриализацию экономики США

Abstract

Introduction. In the context of deglobalization and regionalization of the world economy, the leading country of modern neo-capitalism, the United States of America, is modernizing the national industrial system, using internal and external factors of innovation and technological development. The subject of the study is the assessment of the impact of industrial production development factors observed in the United States in the 2010s on the reindustrialization of the country’s economy (in comparison with the previous decade). The empirical confirmation of the phenomenon of reindustrialization as a strategic basis for the development of the American economy seems to be topical. Theoretical analysis. Based on the cyclic, wave nature of the economic development of the world-system, the “center” of which is the United States, the author identifies two conceptual provisions that conditionally express external and internal contradictions, the solution of which objectively pushes the United States towards reindustrialization. Accordingly, the first one is connected with the growing competition in the world market from the countries that “ride” the new technological wave, and the second one is connected with the solution of the problems of national technological security through the NBIC convergence of industrial production. Empirical analysis. Identification and substantiation of the influence of factors in the development of American industry on the reindustrialization of the US economy is possible through economic and mathematical modeling, the basis of which is the method of principal components. The modeling includes a comparison of linear combinations of the initial factors of the development of American industry over certain periods of time, conditionally divided into two cyclical waves, which qualitatively characterize the multidirectional dynamics of the US industrial mesoeconomic system in the 2000s and 2010s. Results. The difference in the degree of influence of each of the selected factors, estimated by specific indicators of the US industrial development and modeled within a certain cyclical wave, is revealed. At the same time, the total influence of the considered factors of the development of American industry on the reindustrialization of the US economy can be considered generally unidirectional. This testifies, first of all, to the phenomenal nature of reindustrialization “Americanstyle” as a natural objective consequence of the cyclic-wave nature of the process of capitalist reproduction, which at the beginning of the 21st century is at the forefront of a change in technological patterns. In addition, the objective process of re-industrial modernization, confirmed by the empirical data of the simulation, includes a subjective component in the form of increased state influence on the technologization of the industrial sector of the economy through the use of funds from the financial and speculative sphere and protectionist measures in foreign trade.