Торговый поворот на восток: куда в действительности разворачивается Россия?

Abstract

The study aims to conceptualize Russia’s “Pivot to the East” phenomenon. The author suggests original system of criteria for measuring de facto pivot towards the particular region, focusing on Russia’s export flows, their geographic and commodity diversification as Russia’s key strategic priorities. Besides, she explores empirically the contemporary changes in Russia’s de facto export flows. The author concludes that the “pivot” was supported by the general course towards de-Westernization. Russia is definitely moving away from the West, although this progress is not rapid and systemic yet, but rather selective. However, having turned away from the West, Russia has not yet turned to the East. The pivot towards the Asian region is very limited. The two main directions of the pivot to the East are (1) small markets of South and Southeast Asia, whose share in Russian exports is extremely small, and (2) unfriendly Singapore, Japan, and South Korea. At the same time, despite the status of the largest regional partner, expanding trade with China do not correspond to the country’s strategic interests. The turn towards China contributes to de-industrialization and securing Russia’s role as a large supplier of raw materials. Trade complementarity is limited and asymmetric. Simultaneously, the export potential in trade with India is underestimated. Russia began to turn not towards the East, but rather towards the Global South. The process in accompanied by the growing importance of the Middle East and North Africa, as well as partially African and Latin American countries. At the same time, there is no direction towards the post-Soviet space (with the exception of a confident trade rapprochement with Kazakhstan and Tajikistan).