Прогнозирование урожайности ягодников ежевики сизой в лесах степного Придонья

Abstract

Приводятся результаты краткосрочного прогнозирования урожайности ягодников ежевики сизой в различных группах типов леса степного Придонья. С помощью корреляционного анализа установлена точность полученных прогнозных значений. The article deals with research of specificities of forecasting of yield of Rubus caesius in the main groups of forests of the steppe Pridonye [1]. Relevance of the research is due to the fact that, in natural forests of the steppe Pridonye the Rubus caesius is widely spread. According to data of the previous researches, there are the following factors, that influence growth and fruiting of wild Rubus caesius berry-field: type of forest, crown density and weather conditions. At the same time, the issue of forecasting of yield of Rubus caesius in forests of the steppe Pridonye remains open. As the result of this work, it was established by authors, that the most quantity of flowers of Rubus caesius per square meter is approximately the same in all groups of types of forest of the studied territory (65–86 pcs./m2), except oak ravine thalweg forests, where this value is significantly lower (40–43 pcs./m2). At the same time, the most quantity of sets were founded in black poplars near the riverbed (47–63 pcs./m2) and birch steppe sandy banded forests (48–60 pcs./m2),and the lowest – in oak ravine thalweg forests (21–22 pcs./m2). Long-time average annual weight of a berry on all sample plots under review is almost the same and ranges within the frame of 0,8–0,9 g. The only exceptions are the sample plot 2 and the sample plot 8, where this value is 1,0 g and 1,2 g respectively. Besides that, the authors received forecasting data of yield of Rubus caesius berry-field in the main groups of types of forests of the steppe Pridonye. To hold accuracy analysis of obtained forecasting values there was also calculated and given long-time average annual yield of Rubus caesius on the sample plots under review according to data of field researches 2012–2017 years. The results of comparative analysis represent that the obtained forecasting values in all cases exceed data of actual yield. At the same time, it should be noted, that values, that have been calculated by quantity of sets per square meter of berry-fields by using coefficient of long-time average annual fruitfulness of fruits setting turned out more similar to actual data. Using for calculation the data of flowering has shown large differences from real values. Reference 1. Turchin, Т.Y. The forests of steppe Pridonye / Т.Y. Turchin, Т.А. Turchina. – Rostov-on-Don: Publishing office of Rost. University, 2005. – 204 p.