Метод событийно-психологической диагностики и «китайское пророчество» Джека Лондона

Abstract

The article examines the «Chinese prophecy» of Jack London, reflected in his 1910 story «The Unparalleled Invasion». The essence of the writer's prediction boils down to a collision in the distant future of the United States and China, as a result of which Chinese civilization will be completely destroyed by biological weapons. The COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic, which swept around the world and began in 2020 in the Chinese city of Wuhan with a clear «American trace», suggests that Jack London's «Chinese prophecy» was confirmed 110 years after the publication of the story. In addition to the general plot, there are a number of smaller and more specific forecasts in the story, which amaze with their accuracy. To explain the phenomenon of «Chinese prophecy», a simple model of futurological success is proposed, which is based on a formula according to which the success of a prediction is determined by the underlying scientific method and the individual intuition of the writer. Examples and facts show that Jack London really relied on these two components of creative success. Some important discrepancies between the «Chinese prophecy» and the current reality are revealed; the role of the writer's original existential attitudes, characteristic of Western civilization, in the nature of forecasts and perception of future events is shown.