ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ПРОЦЕССОВ МОРСКОГО ПАССАЖИРСКОГО ТЕРМИНАЛА В КЛАССЕ ПОЛИНОМИАЛЬНЫХ МОДЕЛЕЙ

Abstract

Modern marine passenger terminals represent complex technical systems depending on the intensity of ship calls, passenger traffic, and influence of the environment and correct organization of internal processes. To achieve the sustainable development of the terminal it is necessary to take into account the multicriterion nature, which requires solving the task of identifying the processes, highlighting the key parameters and analyzing the status of the terminal. In the course of investigating the processes the primary issues become the discrete nature of the initial data, schedules of calls, time-tables. The process of steady operation of the terminal can be shown as a sequence of several operation modes taken in certain time moments, each being described by a certain set of port characteristics. Thus, the state of the system can be analyzed according to a set of selected parameters and the conditions for achieving the desired functioning can be evaluated. But, with this approach, it is rather problematic to solve the problem of forecasting, since the terminal infrastructure must cope with new challenges: increasing the size of the passenger liners and changing the route networks based on changing priorities of passengers. The number of local problems can be solved on the basis of models of queuing systems, but the greatest interest is to obtain the models in analytical form. To increase the efficiency of control over passenger flow and working processes on cruise ships and ferries there appears the need to create a complex of polynomial models. The object of the survey is a joint-stock company “Passenger Port of Saint Petersburg “Marine Facade”. Based on the states of the system characterized by the intensity of ship calls for the past periods, the tasks of constructing the analytical forecast function, of identifying the processes have been solved, as well as there has been defined the predicted number of ship calls to the port for the nearest navigation. The obtained results allow improving the quality of decision making on substantiating the modernization of the port infrastructure, solving the problem of forecasting the development of the terminal in order to meet the new challenges of the sea passenger transportation market.