ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО РОСТА В РОССИИ НА ФОНЕ НИЗКОЙ ИНФЛЯЦИИ

Globally, interest rates have fallen to extreme lows in advanced economies and are expected to remain low. At the same time, market concentration, corporate profits and profit markups are constantly increasing. Additionally, the productivity gap between leaders and followers within the same industry has widened. The study aimed to investigate the effect of interest rates charges on economic growth in Tanzania. The study adopted case study research design with quantitative approach. The study adopted probability sampling procedure. The study used Slovenes formula to obtain sample size of 378 from target population of 6893 respondents. The study used questionnaire to obtain data needed. The finding of the study indicates that interest rate led to increase price of commodities in the market indicates that, Changes in interest rates can also affect the broader economy, influencing consumer behavior and demand for commodities. Higher rates can slow economic growth, leading to reduced demand for certain commodities. Also, interest rates affect currency values. Higher rates can lead to a stronger domestic currency... The study concluded that higher interest rates can drive up commodity prices and influence consumer behavior, potentially slowing economic growth and reducing demand for certain goods. This demonstrates that fluctuations in interest rates have broader implications for the economy. Also, increased interest rates can strengthen the domestic currency, but this appreciation may make commodities more expensive for foreign buyers, further complicating demand dynamics.

Graph 1.1 Consumer Price Index a/b/ (annual change; end-of-period) a/ This graph presents the forecast probability distribution on an eight-quarter time horizon. Density characterizes the prospective balance of risks with areas of 30%, 60%, and 90% probability surrounding the central forecast (mode), through a combination of densities from the Patacon and the 4GM monetary policy models. b/ The probability distribution corresponds to the forecast exercise from the January report. Source: DANE -calculations and projections by Banco de la República.

Macroeconomic management in an open economy to stimulate economic stability and growth for economic development through monetary policy and its impact on economy is one of the major concern of every economy. This paper examined the impact of monetary policy on Nigerian economy. The paper utilized the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique through multiple regression on the data sourced from secondary sources for the period of 1980 to 2016. The results of the study reveals that money supply (MS) has positive and significant relationship with the GDP and are strongly correlated, the interest rate (INT) has a negative relationship with the GDP, so also is the exchange rate (EXR), this implies that increase in interest rate will leads to decrease in GDP, while reduction in interest rate will stimulate investment and would lead to economic growth, also exchange rate (EXR) has a negative relationship with GDP, the higher the exchange rate the lower the GDP as the value of the local currency depreciates.. The paper then recommends amongst others that the monetary authorities should ensure adequate supply of foreign exchange earnings in the economy so as to stabilize and make the local currency to be appreciated.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services that occurs continuously. The aim of this research is to analyze the influence of interest rates on the development of the inflation rate. Interest rates are one of the monetary policy instruments used by central banks to control inflation. Inflation is an indicator that reflects economic health and influences various aspects such as purchasing power, monetary policy and economic stability. This research examines the effect of changes in interest rates as the main monetary policy instrument used to control inflation and its impact on economic growth. The method used in this research is simple linear regression to analyze the data. The research results show that the coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.169. This means that around 16.9% of the Inflation variable (Y) is influenced by the independent variable, namely Interest Rates (X). Researchers found that in determining monetary policy the central bank has two quick decision options to control the stability of the inflation rate, including, increasing interest rates when the inflation rate is high or reducing interest rates when the inflation rate is decreasing which results in sluggish economic activity.

Ghana has been confronted with series of economic problems to the extent of calling on the IMF for a bailout after every eight years. This situation has persisted in spite of various monetary authority stabilization policies. This paper therefore focuses on investigating the games of monetary policy, inflation and economic growth of the Ghanaian economy for the period of 1982-2017. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to cointegration model, it was revealed from the study that in the long run interest rate significantly influences economic growth but in a negative direction, implies that a higher interest rate has the tendency to restrained economic growth and inflationary pressures. In relation to exchange rate, the long run result indicates an insignificant negative effect on economic growth. The general results suggest that macroeconomic variable which influences economic growth is interest rate and exchange rate. This is evidence that macroeconomic instabilities have significant effect on economic growth. This therefore calls for fiscal discipline and autonomy power to the Bank of Ghana with less interreference from the government to enable the smooth implementation of monetary policies without any string of politics attached.

Comment

Acceleration of economic growth, especially in modern conditions, requires the use of stimulating measures of fiscal and monetary policy. Measures to stimulate economic growth should also maintain macroeconomic stability. Many emerging markets and developing economies are pursuing high interest rate policies to curb inflation, but this leads to a reduction in lending to non-financial corporations and to economic growth rates decline. The goal of the study is to show that pursuing high interest rates policy is insufficient. We tested several hypotheses: first, we assume that an increase in lending to non-financial corporations stimulates economic growth. Our second hypothesis, in contrast, suggests that increasing interest rates on loans dampen economic growth. Third, we assume that inflation has no significant effect on economic growth. Forth, we consider that lending to non-financial corporations does not spur inflation. We empirically assess the data for 13 countries related to emerging markets during 2001–2020. The results of the research confirmed all the hypotheses. The monetary policy of maintaining high interest rates used by many developing countries leads to low lending to non-financial corporations and reduced economic growth. We propose several policy implications aimed at stimulating the lending to non-financial corporations and scarce inflation.

Interest rates certainly greatly affect investors to invest, high interest rates will cause increased production costs and decreased market purchasing power. High interest rates can also encourage investors to sell their assets with the expected profit, but if the interest rate increases, there is a tendency for investors not to invest in the capital market because they are afraid of high risks and profits that are not as expected. This has a negative impact on stock prices in the capital market because the expected rate of return on shares is smaller than the gain from interest rates, resulting in a decrease in demand for share prices and share prices will decline along with the increase in interest rates. This condition can make investors less interested in investing. According to the perspective of the syirkah inan contract, the profit sharing is divided according to the amount of capital participation of each party. In stock investment, stock prices often change, so there is a concern that there is uncertainty about the stock price and the level of profit that will be obtained by investors. To obtain these answers, in this study the authors used a descriptive analysis method, with a qualitative approach. From the results of this study it was found that in stock investment there is a potential for uncertainty in stock prices which often changes, and can harm investors due to falling stock prices due to rising interest rates. In this case, when the share price rises due to an increase in interest rates, investors are forced to hold their shares from being sold to prevent losses that will be experienced by investors.

The study examined the impact of monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria, using annual data spanning the period 1985 to 2022. One of the major objectives of monetary policy in Nigeria is economic growth but despite the various monetary efforts that have been adopted by the Central Bank of Nigeria over the years, inflation remains a major threat to Nigeria's economic growth. Despite the increased focus on monetary policy adoption in Nigeria, the country's economic growth remains an issue. High unemployment, low investment, high inflation, and an unstable foreign exchange rate are examples of such issues. These alleged issues are said to have contributed to Nigeria's rapid drop in economic growth. The objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between economic growth, exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate, and money supply in Nigeria. In this regard, the study employed the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and established a long-run relationship between economic growth and interest rate, inflation, exchange rate, and money supply. Specifically, the findings suggested that in the long run only interest rate has significant effects on economic growth while exchange rate, money supply, and interest rate have a positive relationship with the dependent variable, it was only the inflation rate that has a negative relationship with economic growth in Nigeria. Given the important role of interest rates in promoting economic growth, the study recommends that a significant decrease in interest rates will lead to an increase in the growth of the economy as the reduced interest rate will serve as bait for investors in the Nigerian economy.

This study investigates the effect of interest rate on economic growth in Nigeria using annual data spanning the period of 1970–2016. Specifically, the study analyzes the effect of regulated and deregulated interest rates on economic growth in Nigeria. The study employs Ordinary Least Square (OLS) techniques to achieve the objectives. The regression models employed for analysis are specified and categorized to capture: the regulated interest rate regime (1970 – 1986); the deregulated interest rate regime (1987 – 2016) and the full period of study (1970 – 2016).The study reveals that: there is a negative and significant relationship between regulated interest rate and economic growth in Nigeria; there is a negative and significant relationship between deregulated interest rate and economic growth in Nigeria; there is a negative and significant relationship between interest rate and economic growth in Nigeria. The policy implications are easily discernible: high interest rate is detrimental to economic growth in Nigeria; interest rate can be used as a policy variable by the monetary authorities to control the flow of credit and also influence economic growth in Nigeria. Therefore, irrespective of the kind of regime, the management of the interest rate in Nigeria calls for high level discretion on the part of monetary authorities if macroeconomic goals are to be achieved. Thus, the study recommends that: interest rate should be closely monitored, stabilized and effectively managed. Monetary authorities should endeavour to maintain the interest rate at a single digit and at minimal levels to encourage investment and foster output growth.

This study investigates how inflation and interest rates are related to economic growth of India. The different economic theories state that inflation and interest rates are associated with economic growth based on economic conditions of the nation. Based on the above, this research examines the influence of inflation and interest rates on India’s economic growth. This study is based on annual time series data for the period from 1992 to 2015. While analyse the data, correlation, ADF and PP unit root tests, cointegration test, vector error correction model and Granger causality test have been used. The empirical results confirm that there exists long run causality from economic growth to inflation and interest rates and also exist a unidirectional causal movement from economic growth to interest rates. The findings of the studies offer a few directions for Indian government and policymakers on the consequence of keeping low inflation and most advantageous interest rate in the present condition of Indian economy so that the economic growth is promoted. The paper includes implications for the economic growth; the Reserve Bank of India controlled the inflation rate and unchanged the interest rate. This research fulfils a well-known need of how inflation rate and interest rate helpful for economic growth.

Editor's Introduction

The study aims to analyze the effect of the BPD Deposit Interest Rate Factor, Government Bank Deposit Interest Rate, Inflation Rate, economic growth, and money supply affecting the exchange rate of the rupiah per US dollar in 2004-2021 partially and simultaneously. The research method uses secondary data in the form of panel data and cross section for 18 years (quarterly data on 26 provinces in Indonesia). Literature survey research from BI, BPD, and BPS Center. Quantitative analysis method using multiple linear regression analysis tools. The results showed that (1) partially, the interest rate factor of Government Bank deposits, the money supply has a positive but insignificant effect on the exchange rate of the rupiah per US dollar. Regional Development Bank deposit interest rates, inflation rates, and economic growth have a negative but significant effect on the exchange rate of the rupiah per US dollar; and (2) simultaneously, the factors of interest rates on deposits of BPD, interest rates on deposits of Government Banks, inflation rates, economic growth, money supply have a significant effect on the exchange rate of rupiah per US dollar. An increase in interest rates on deposits of Government Banks and money supply, a decrease in interest rates on deposits of BPD, inflation rates, and economic growth will increase the exchange rate of rupiah (depreciated).

Evaluating the risk of Chinese housing markets: What we know and what we need to know

Real estate is an important driver of the Chinese economy, which itself is vital for global growth. However, data limitations make it challenging to evaluate competing claims about the state of Chinese housing markets. This paper brings new data and analysis to the study of supply and demand conditions in nearly three dozen major cities. We first document the most accurate measures of land values, construction costs, and overall house prices. We then create and investigate a number of supply and demand metrics to see if price growth reasonably can be interpreted as reflecting local market fundamentals. Key results include the following: (1) Real house price growth has been high, averaging 10% per annum since 2004. However, there is substantial heterogeneity across markets, ranging from 3% (Jinan) to 20% (Beijing). House price growth is driven by rising land values, not by construction costs. Real land values have risen by over 15% per annum on average. In Beijing, the increase has been by a remarkable 27.5% per year (or by 1,036%) since 2004. (2) There is variation about the strong positive trend in house price and land value growth. Land values fell by nearly one-third at the beginning of the global financial crisis, but more than fully recovered amidst the 2009-2010 Chinese stimulus. More recent growth has been much more modest, with some markets beginning to decline. Quantities of land sales by local governments to private residential developers have dropped sharply over the past two years. The most recent data show transactions volumes down by half or more. This should lead to a reduced supply of new housing units in coming years. (3) Market-level analysis of short- and longer-run changes in supply-demand balances finds important variation across markets. In the major East region markets of Beijing, Hangzhou, Shanghai and Shenzhen which have experienced very high rates of real price growth, we estimate that the growth in households demanding housing units has outpaced new construction since the turn of the century. However, there are a dozen large markets, primarily in the interior of the country, in which new housing production has outpaced household growth by at least 30% and another eight in which it did so by at least 10%. Regression results show that a one standard deviation increase in local market housing inventory is associated with a 0.45 standard deviation lower rate of real house price growth the following year. (4) There are no official data on residential vacancy rates in China, but some researchers have reported very high figures (17%+). We develop a new series at the provincial level which yields a much lower vacancy rate on average, but it has been rising—from 5% in 2009 to 7% in 2013. (5) The risk of housing even in markets such as Beijing which show no evidence of oversupply, is best evidenced by price-to-rent ratios. They are well above 50 in the capital city. Poterba’s (1984) user cost model suggests these levels can be justified only if owners have sufficiently high expectations of future capital gains. Even a modest one percentage point drop in expected appreciation (or increase in interest rates) would result in a drop in prices of about one-third, absent an offsetting increase in rents.