Abstract
In the article, in the form of an integral model, the classical approaches to strategic diagnostics of the external environment of an enterprise (PESTEL-analysis, ETOM and EFEM) are improved on the basis of the use of fuzzy-set theory tools, taking into account probabilistic considerations regarding the possibility of implementing the influence of relevant factors. A modified matrix for evaluating external factors by J. Wilson based on the linguistic assessments of experts is also proposed. In order to achieve the set goals, the work uses methods of strategic analysis and fuzzy methods of multi-criteria analysis. To represent the linguistic assessments of experts, fuzzy numbers in triangular form with triangular membership functions are used. To determine the fuzzy coefficients of the importance of external factors, the Fuzzy AHP method was used, to calculate the fuzzy values of the influence of factors in certain areas of analysis and their integral influence – Fuzzy SAW, to defuzzify the obtained values – the COA (Center Of Area) method. To rank environmental factors it is proposed to use a coefficient that takes into account both the level of influence of a particular factor and the probability of its implementation. For the purpose of practical application of the proposed algorithm, the model is implemented as a framework in the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox package of the Matlab computing system and contains a block for introducing expert information in the form of linguistic estimates, a block for transforming these estimates into fuzzy numbers written in triangular form with the corresponding membership functions, a fuzzy calculus block values of the level of influence of factors of the external environment of the enterprise in the directions of analysis and the general level of their influence, a block of defuzzification of these values. The design scheme makes it possible to carry out simulation modeling, depending on the modification of the list of certain factors of the external environment and the correction of experts' considerations. The developed methodological approach can be used in the strategic planning of activities of both enterprises with related diversification, and conglomerates, as a basis for the development and implementation of effective competitive strategies.
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