Программный и проектный подходы при решении крупномасштабных экологических проблем

Abstract

The article discusses the federal program “Ecology of the Angara-Yenisei region (AYR)”. The description of the systemic synthesis of different approaches to the assessment of the program of restoration and preservation of the natural complex of the Yenisei, as the skeletal basis of the ecological-assimilation potential of AEP is given. The necessity of taking into account the uncertainty factor when evaluating large-scale environmental projects is substantiated. Purpose of the study. Show that the effects of large-scale projects affect the very scenario of economic development, in this regard, it is incorrect to use the primitive integration of an alternative (strategy) into the same scenario, it is shown that it is necessary to evaluate the “project – scenario” relationship. Materials and methods. The authors propose to use three levels of assessment for evaluating large-scale projects: macro level, meso level and micro level. This classification allows you to gradually reduce the level of uncertainty. The information obtained at the previous level of assessment is the source for the lower level. Results. At the first stage, the judgments of the experts were processed using computer products developed at the IEIE. At the second step, the National Project “Ecology of Russia” was analyzed, consisting of 11 federal projects, and a mathematical model was developed for the multicriteria problem of optimal cost management of the project, taking into account the uncertainty factor. The result of the third step was the creation of a hybrid model for assessing large-scale environmental projects from a logical-heuristic model based on expert information and an economic-mathematical model. Analogs of such models, created with the participation of the authors, work in the evaluation of large-scale railway projects. This refers to a family of semi-dynamic optimization models, which have been tested to varying degrees in solving meso-level problems, both in planned and market economies. Moreover, on the basis of one of the versions of this family, a medical-ecological-economic model was developed, and with its help, a scenario analysis of the development of the subjects of the Asian part of Russia was carried out. Conclusion. The article provides a brief description of the functionality and the need to use the appropriate mathematical and software tools as the stages of large-scale projects progress from concept to implementation.