Агрегована модель енергозабезпечення за структурою даних продуктового енергетичного балансу

Abstract

An economic-mathematical model of the production type was developed, intended for forecasting the country's energy supply by calculating the balanced supply of carbon-containing fuels, electricity and heat from fossil fuel and renewable energy sources. The model was built on the basis of open data sources according to the specific structure of technological methods by L.V. Kantorovich, which, unlike the known ones, uses subsystems for the production of abstract products that correspond to the range of outputs and inputs of the product energy balance, and also uses procedures for their selective aggregation to build various forms of inter-product balance matrices. This allowed us to obtain a tool for forecasting and assessing energy balances that is resistant to the growing limitations of information support, which is distinguished by a new system of conditions for a production-type model for the expanded range of the International Energy Agency's product energy balance, as well as a set of technological methods proposed for the first time by L.V. Kantorovich, which together determined the structure of output, costs and product links of individual producers of the energy supply system within the framework of a mutually agreed multi-product balance. The proposed model provides opportunities for using statistical and technological approaches to determining output and cost coefficients in solving forecasting problems, applying inherent means of analyzing retrospective balances to identify unaccounted volumes of FER, as well as volumes of their consumption and transformation in the country's energy sector with significant changes in the structure of electricity and heat generation capacities. The forecasted volumes of supply of the main types of energy resources obtained in the calculations using the developed energy supply model allowed us to assert that, given the indicators of energy efficiency achieved in 2020, the country's energy supply system is able to meet the country's needs mainly through the development of domestic fuel bases. Keywords: energy supply, product energy balance, production type model.