Переосмысление эмпирических данных об отсутствии нейтральности денег в экономике

Abstract

The article rethinks the empirical data of non-neutrality of money in the economy. According to modern empirical data, there is a relationship between the money supply and the real variables — real output, unemployment and relative prices. However, the understanding of the fact that the money supply is a nominal variable, which cannot be related to the real situation of the economy. These considerations raise doubts about the existence of above-mentioned dependence. Moreover, the paper proves that the changes of money supply do not affect the real variables. These arguments cause the need to rethink the empirical data of non-neutrality of money in the economy. Further analysis shows that another parameter has impact on real variables — agents ‘purchasing power of money (income). This variable changes simultaneously with the change in money supply and this variable is the one that influences the real variables. Thus, the impact of monetary policy on the economic system is only through the redistribution of income between agents. As a result, monetary policy is only a less effective fiscal policy.