ПРОТЕСТ В ГОРОДАХ СИБИРИ: ОПЫТ ИЗМЕРЕНИЯ ФАКТОРОВ МОБИЛИЗАЦИОННОЙ АКТИВНОСТИ

Abstract

The paper considers a set of conditions that stimulate mobilization activity. Based on the J. Goldstone’s fourth-generation revolution model, the author proposes such stimuli: the effectiveness of government, the dissatisfaction and the elites, and the protesters' notion of the power. The author reviews protesting regions’ capitals with these factors based on the assessment of mobilization. The preliminary results show that the higher the level of urban prosperity and of formal competition, the higher the mobilization activity and the ability of protest communities to establish control over resources and to achieve their goals. The main components influencing the protest identity (“anger”, “profit” and “enemy”) are proposed. Further development of mobilization takes various forms. In the most prosperous cities, it is likely for protest communities of liberal, socialist, and national-patriotic types to become an element of political competition and to complement electoral and symbolic struggle concentrated around certain leaders and topics: social justice, ecology, legal protection and values of liberalism. The other extreme (in dysfunctional cities) — short-term situational outbreaks of protest around national, state, religious or socialist ideals. The mobilization activity here is minimal, which does not exclude active street events resulting in possible personnel shifts with the relative stability of the power coalitions.