Моделирование импортозамещающего развития отрасли на основе метода экономического креста

Abstract

Abstract. The practice of countering sanctions in Russia in 2014-2021 and the sanctions crisis of February-April 2020 showed that ensuring the economic security of the country on the basis of import substitution is impossible without the formation of integral continuous food chains. Between 2014 and 2021, the country successfully managed to form its own manufacturer in such critical sectors of its economy as agriculture, software manufactur-ing, production of means of production, and production of its own equipment for export industries, including oil and gas production. At the same time, the dependence of the re-spective manufacturers on foreign components, foreign labor and foreign services re-mains a significant problem. For a number of sectors of the domestic economy, including the aircraft industry and the automotive industry, dependence on intermediate links in supply chains controlled by a foreign manufacturer remained critical at the beginning of 2022, which gave grounds to start a discussion at the level of the country's leadership about the inevitability of taking extraordinary measures to preserve industry in the me-dium term. Projects are being discussed regarding the resumption of production of do-mestic models and components using obsolete technologies, including Soviet technolo-gies. So, in relation to the automotive industry, the expediency of resuming the produc-tion of E0 class engines is being discussed. At the same time, in the long term, effective import substitution is impossible without complex modeling of the industry architecture based on the use of innovative technologies. The purpose of this work is to adapt the previously proposed by the authors methodology of the "Economic Cross" in relation to the current needs of the sectoral import substitution. The key aspects that require moni-toring by the organizer of import substitution at the industry level and possible direc-tions for identifying and involving the intellectual resource of the development of the Russian economy in the process of import substitution using the proposed method of economic planning and forecasting are identified.