Формирование модели оценки экономической безопасности в условиях цифровых преобразований

Abstract

Introduction. New economic conditions today are reflected in the development of the digital economy and determine the need to develop new methods of assessment, management, ways to attract specialists. In this article, an attempt was made to formulate a model for assessing economic security in the context of digital transformation, showing how the introduction of digital technologies contributes to the growth of real industry indicators and indicators and economic security. Theoretical analysis is based on the assumption that the effectiveness of digital transformations is expressed through the rate of change in the economic security indicators of a particular industry. For example, the agro-industrial complex was chosen as the key one in the field of maintaining the food and economic security of Russia. The model for assessing the economic security of innovation activity includes four stages: the formation of a set of indicators that characterize the level of digital development of the industry; construction of a reference series and ranking of indicators; comparison of the actual ranking series with the reference ranking series, calculation of the development coefficient; interpretation of the digital transformations’ economic security assessment results. Empirical analysis. The results obtained indicate that there are pathological problems in the industry that cannot be resolved through digitalization, this is proved by the development coefficient trend: there is an outstripping growth of investment in digital development against the backdrop of weakly growing intra-industry indicators; there is a decrease in the real disposable income of the population against the backdrop of rising inflation, which affects the purchasing power of the population; in the agro-industrial complex there is a high level of depreciation of fixed assets. Conclusions. The use of the economic security assessment model quite informatively reflects the current realities of economic development. The results of the assessment showed the presence of crisis phenomena in the industry and its grave condition. A way of solving the existing problems can be the increase of economic security both at the level of the state and industry, and at the level of a single organization.