Abstract
The problem of “population aging” in the countries of the first world and its expected consequences are the subject of active discussion in the scientific community. However, estimates of such effects are generally calculated at the national level for a particular country. Estimates for all countries are calculated by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, but the most commonly used “average” scenario is calculated based on a fixed and fairly small set of hypotheses and patterns. In this work, forecast scenarios of the dynamics of the demographic burden of the elderly in developed countries are calculated and analyzed in connection with the dynamics of the birth rate of these countries, as well as the dynamics of migration flows. The main goal of the work is to identify for each country the scale of the forthcoming increase in the demographic burden by the elderly and to assess how much the increase in the birth rate and the growth of migration can reduce or slow down the growth of this burden.
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