Оценка будущих температур воздуха Центральной Африки по сценариям проектов CMIP5 и CMIP6

Abstract

Based on the results of the historical experiment of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projects, the effectiveness of the scenario estimates (RCP/SSP1 2.6, RCP/SSP2 4.5 and RCP/SSP5 8.5) of the future air temperature for Central Africa for the IPSL and BCC global climate models is evaluated and the simulation results of these projects are compared with each other and with the observations of meteorological stations in the region, both for the historical experimental period and with the observations of recent years for the implementation of future climate projections. Based on historical experiment and future evaluations over the past 16 years, it has been determined that the CMIP6 project model versions are no more effective than the CMIP5 results when compared with observational data. Due to the fact that the differences between observational and modeling data are systematic, the results of scenario estimates were adjusted according to the principle of similarity of temperature growth rates for the historical observation period and the future scenario period untilthe end ofthe 21stcentury,which is divided into 3 intervalsfor estimating average values: 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. Future air temperatures in Central Africawere estimated both forthe average values fortheterritory and forthetemperatures of individualweatherstations based on the adjusted scenario values, which differed in CMIP5 and CMIP6 by no more than 0.1°С. It was found that the average temperature increase over the territory in all months by the end of the 21st century reaches 2.0–2.3°C, and according to estimates at individual weather stations, spatial distributions of future temperatures were obtained, which show the greatest increase in the north of the region near the Sahel.