Սոցիալական ծրագրերի գրավչությունը և ծնելիության մակարդակի վայրիվերումները ՀՀ-ում/Attractiveness of Social Programs and Birth Rate Fluctuation in the Republic of Armenia

Abstract

Since the end of the 20th century, the world has registered a decline in the global fertility rate. According to UN forecasts, the fertility decline rate in the world will continue up to mid 21st century and by 2045-2050 the average number of births to a woman of reproductive age will be 2.2, and in 2100- 1.9. Consequently, many countries around the world have adopted measures to promote the birth rate. In almost all the countries, including the Republic of Armenia, the socio-demographic policies of birth promotion is mainly implemented through two methods: legally defined vacations and benefits. In the mid-20th century, the fertility rate (the average number of children a woman would bear in her lifetime if she experienced the current age-specific fertility rates throughout her reproductive years) in Armenia decreased from 4.7 births, and in 2020 it was already at 1.66. During the observed period, the decline in the reproduction rate was registered in the country, this was also negatively impacted by poverty, emigration, high unemployment, the Artsakh war and the pandemic. If the birth rate continues to decline, Armenia will be in a much more dangerous position in the near future, as the population of reproductive age will continue to decline, which, in turn, will lead to a decrease in the reproductive capacity of the population. The paper addresses the reasons, measures taken to improve and their impact on the decline of the birth rate both in Armenia and in a number of foreign countries.