ПРОЄКТ ЄВРОПЕЙСЬКОЇ ІНТЕГРАЦІЇ НА КОНФЕРЕНЦІЇ ЩОДО МАЙБУТНЬОГО ЄВРОПЕЙСЬКОГО СОЮЗУ 2021-2022 РР.

Abstract

The article is devoted to the process of finding consensus on the further development of the European integration project at the intergovernmental conference on the future of the European Union. The methodological basis of the article is a functionalist and constructivist theory of European integration. This theoretical basis provides an opportunity to analyze the work of the conference on the future of the European Union in terms of political realism. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the coverage of the basic scenarios of the conference on the future process of European integration. The optimistic scenario is to adopt recommendations for the gradual formation of a federal «European Republic». This scenario is opposed by the actions of populist European skeptics. But they do not have effective supranational political structures. Therefore, skeptics are unable to systematically oppose the supranational European bureaucracy. So a skeptical scenario is also unlikely. The British precedent of leaving the European Union highlighted the risks of a radical approach to non-acceptance of European integration in its supranational format. A realistic scenario is most likely. Each country of the European Union accepts its own interests in the recommendations for the future of European integration. Under this inertial-conservative scenario, EU enlargement to the Balkans will continue beyond the 2030s. The enlargement of the EU to the countries of the «associated trio» (Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine) will take place in the long run. The European Union will become more differentiated by groups of Member States with specific regional interests. These trends are evident during the intergovernmental conference on the future of the European Union. Uncertainty about the European Union's development strategy freezes the EU's enlargement process. The realization of the tendency to harmonize different values is hypothetical.