ВПЛИВ СТОХАСТИЧНИХ ФАКТОРІВ НА ОПЕРАТИВНЕ УПРАВЛІННЯ ТРАНСПОРТНИМИ ПОТОКАМИ. ЧАСТИНА 2

Abstract

The article describes the existing problems of uncertainty in the system of operational redistribution of traffic flows, considers stochastic factors that are different in nature and features of the effect on the transport system, which require consideration in the operational management of traffic flows, as well as the features of their influence on the short-term state of the transport system. A simplified classification of stochastic factors is given, algorithms for the connection of these factors with each other and with indicators that are already taken into account by the management system are given, the nature of the influence is indicated. Statistical data samples are analyzed and the basics of methods for working with them are indicated. For the most common stochastic factors, such as the number of traffic accidents on city road networks and weather and climatic features of the region, methods for generating graphic materials and mathematical approximations are proposed, and formulas for calculating some random variables are recommended, including using limits in the framework of the phase theory of traffic flows. Cartograms with the help of which it is possible to establish stochastic dependences of climatic changes and changes in the ecological state by the example of Mariupol are given. It is proposed for practical use a detailed block diagram of identifying stochastic factors, the formation of information arrays, their analysis and the supply of control signals to the operational management system. The diagram shows a clear differentiation of the primary and secondary stochastic data arrays, and their recommended links to the operational process control system of the transport process are indicated. Using the stated theoretical foundations, it becomes possible to increase the efficiency of the city’s transport system by optimizing the processes of the operational redistribution of traffic flows on the road network and making changes to short-term planning processes. Keywords: stochastic factors, road transport, traffic flow, transport system, transport planning, management, regulation.