Северный и южный транспортные коридоры: новые реалии и перспективы развития

Abstract

Due to the changing geopolitical situation, the development of transport corridors in Eurasia is of critical importance. In recent years, the reliability of the traditional route through the Suez Canal has been repeatedly questioned. There were accidents, arrest of ships, inability to enter ports, piracy and other challenges. Changing geopolitics also imposes its limitations (refusal of insurance because of sanctions, trade embargoes of a number of countries, etc.). Accordingly, countries subject to sanctions’ pressure from the United States and the EU are forced to look for safer, more reliable and faster ways to organize goods and cargo turnover. This actualizes the issue of the development of the two most promising transit corridors – the northern and southern ones. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the North–South Corridor (Trans-Caspian Corridor) were initially considered as options for transit transportation of goods from China to Europe. However, due to the growing social and economic crisis in Europe, the vector of routes is changing, reorienting itself to the Middle East, Africa and Asia. Moreover, the rapid social and economic development of countries and changing geopolitical conditions are activating the processes of searching not only for trade, but also for industrial cooperation. At the same time, restrictions on the development of these routes, both technical and institutional, are still in effect today. The article discusses the key prospects for the development of these transport corridors, provides estimates of possible positive effects for the regions of Russia, and also discusses the problems hindering the use of the Northern Sea Route and the North-South corridor.