Перспективы военно-политической интеграции в Азии. Быть ли “Азиатской НАТО”?

Abstract

A unified strategy of formation of a new organization on security in Asia is absent. Such an initiative is not being emanated by the states of the region. Up to a dozen of varying interpretations of the notion of an “Asian NATO” are spread among the political-academic circles of different countries. The main bulk of such interpretations remain of an American authorship and are aimed at formation of military-political alliance targeted against China, and rather through activation of existing formats than through establishing a formalized military alliance. There is an evolution of the quadrilateral format of QUAD. The bifurcation point in its development requires a choice between evolution towards the real military alliance or in direction of a hybrid strategy of general political and economic interaction within the Asia-Pacific region, with only marginal components in security area. The American concept of Indo-Pacific region is criticized by the states of the region, and especially by the ASEAN member countries. The role of ASEAN as organizer and coordinator in the security area is decreasing. New configurations of military-political cooperation in Asia and in the Asia-Pacific region are emerging (Japan–India, India–Indonesia–Australia). Russia should be cautious in reacting to not-yet-formed American initiative targeted against China, to avoid actions leading to a new split between groups of states in Asia as a whole and specifically in the Asia-Pacific region, with understanding that in such a split Russia would play not a leading but a secondary role. The majority of the states of the Asia-Pacific macro-region are not ready to shape or join any formal anti-Chinese alliance under the U.S. leadership.